China’s Losing Battle to Be a Superpower
June 24, 2011 2 Comments
By TWR Cartoons, http://www.toonpool.com/cartoons/Superpower%20China_100070#
As a debate coach at Biola University, I’m very excited about events in China this summer. A member of the National Forensics Association, Biola will be participating in Lincoln-Douglas debate that will focus on foreign policy with China this year. As I’ve begun studying China and its global position this summer, I’ve been struck by the fact that no one seems to be addressing China’s superpower status.
Maybe it’s because everyone longs for the oddly more secure days of the Cold War that they look to find another power to balance America and they think China fits the bill. Or maybe it’s because some individuals, even in this country, want the Age of America to be superseded by someone, anyone, else…. Again, China seems to fit the bill. The most populous country, the fastest growing economy (currently #2 in the world), a military aiming for a broader global role, nuclear arsenal, and manned space flights all seem to indicate that China is indeed the superpower it claims to be. Indeed, it seems like China’s superpower status is no longer a question in the minds of most observers. However, after closer inspection of the Chinese economy and military I really am beginning to think that what people are commenting on is really a facade, and that China’s claim to, and hold on, superpower status is in fact fragile to false.
First, consider the economy. So they’re #2. But this economic growth is built on a shaky foundation. James Petras notes that the Chinese economy is split in two: A weak, domestic Chinese economy, and an industrial powerhouse that is predominantly run by multinational corporations. Petras argues that this is creating some deep socioeconomic fissures in Chinese society as those participating in the multinational economy are growing increasingly more wealthy and powerful while those in the domestic economy continue in poverty. Battles over land use and ownership are an excellent and heart breaking illustration of Petras’ analysis.
Second, the military. Yes China is increasing its budget, and their worst kept secret is that they’re getting ready to launch an aircraft carrier. This understandably has its neighbors jittery as well as US military planners, but hold on. This “new” aircraft carrier is a refitted Soviet era ship that was originally constructed in 1985! When it’s launched, the Chinese will have one carrier group to our 11. Yes, China is increasing its military spending, but let’s not forget that such spending is still a fraction of what the US spends and its being used on old technology. But what about their stealth fighter? Please, stealth was so Desert Storm. While the Chinese are working are a stealth fighter, we’ve deployed the F-22 and will be deploying the F-35. For the Chinese, stealth tech is new technology, for us it comes standard. I would also point out that in military deployments the Chinese currently deploy fewer peacekeepers than Bangladesh! Bang…..la……desh.
Is China a strong country? Sure, but a little perspective is still necessary, particularly in the world of international relations. China is certainly growing and seeking a bigger global role, but does that necessarily mean that it is able to sustain that? Is the Chinese regime experiencing a little hubris regarding its sphere of influence? What does this mean for the future of Chinese-American relationships? NFA debaters, I’m looking at you.
You’re forgetting one thing…China tends to have surpluses rather than the common deficit here. We are burdened by (an overwhelming) debt, whereas they are not. Do we currently have superior firepower? Probably. Do we have better systems, banks, management, etc.? Probably. But are they saddled with untold amounts of debt with part of that being held by their trading partners (hint: China holds a decent amount of US treasuries) like we are here in America? No.
Well yes, there is the surplus issue, but even that is not necessarily a sign of economic health, or even trustworthy credit (as even I’m finding out in my own micro-economic way). First, consider that China has pegged its currency to the US dollar. What this means is that they’re financial system (the thing that generates those surpluses) stands or falls on our currency. Also, food prices are exploding (almost 12% in the last quarter) and inflation has hit a 34-yr hight. Those surpluses have been built on an artificially valued currency that is really starting to creat some problems in the Chinese financial system. And with Chinese banks recently granting fewere loans, continued growth of economic surpluses is questionable if prices continue to rise so rapidly. Surpluses, sure they got ‘em, but how long are they going to last?